The fiscal impact of migration to the UK - Where are we now?
23rd July 2014
It now seems beyond doubt that migration is a considerable cost to the exchequer. Even on assumptions favourable to migrants, the most recent and extensive academic research found that migration from 1995 to 2011 had cost the taxpayer £96 billion or about £15 million a day. The claim that recent EEA migrants had contributed £22 billion between 2001 and 2011 is fundamentally unsound: other calculations make it closer to zero.
Minimum Income Requirement
19th July 2014
The Court of Appeal in the recent case of MM v. Secretary of State for the Home Department  EWCA Civ. 985 had to consider the minimum income requirement introduced into the Immigration Rules in June 2012. Previously the requirement for the issue of a marriage visa, as set out in Rule 281 was that the parties must show inter alia that they would be able to maintain themselves and their dependants adequately without recourse to public funds. The new Rules are set out in Appendix FM Family Members Section E-ECP Eligibility for entry clearance as a partner, which includes a financial requirement that an applicant for such a visa must show evidence of a gross annual income of £18,600 plus an additional £3800 for a first child and an additional £2,400 for each additional child.
Immigration Act 2014
Article 8 ECHR
Public interest considerations
18th July 2014
1. There has been much concern in recent years about the number of cases in which convicted foreign criminals have been able to frustrate decisions to remove or deport them from the United Kingdom by reliance in appeals against such decisions on Article 8 of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), which provides:
Net migration nearly quadrupled from 48,000 in 1997 to 185,000 in 2003. Once the East Europeans had been granted free movement in 2004 it peaked at 273,000 in 2007. Net foreign migration between 1997 and 2010 totalled nearly 4 million, two thirds of it non EU.
In 2013 over half a million migrants arrived in Britain, more than the total population of Bradford. In the same year 314,000 migrants left so net migration was 212,000.
We must build a new home every seven minutes for new migrants for the next 20 years or so.
England (not the UK) is the second most crowded country in Europe, after the Netherlands, excluding island and city states.
The UK population is projected to grow by over 9 million (9.4m) in just 25 years’ time, increasing from 64 million in 2013 to 73 million by 2039. Of this increase, about two thirds is projected to be due to future migrants and their children - the equivalent of the current populations of Birmingham, Leeds, Sheffield, Bradford, Manchester, Edinburgh, Liverpool, Bristol, Cardiff, Newcastle, Belfast and Aberdeen.
To keep the population of the UK below 70 million, net migration must be reduced to around 40,000 a year. It would then peak in mid-century at just under 70 million (about 69.7 million).
Revised July 2014
“One spectacular mistake in which I participated (not alone) was in lifting the transitional restrictions on the Eastern European states like Poland and Hungary which joined the EU in mid-2004. Other existing EU members, notably France and Germany, decided to stick to the general rule which prevented migrants from these new states from working until 2011. Thorough research by the Home Office suggested that the impact of this benevolence would in any event be 'relatively small, at between 5,000 and 13,000 immigrants per year up to 2010'. Events proved these forecasts worthless. Net migration reached close to a quarter of a million at its peak in 2010. Lots of red faces, mine included.”
Jack Straw, the Labour MP for Blackburn and former Home Secretary, speaking to his local newspaper about the 2004 Accession of the A8 to Europe and Labour’s decision not to impose transitional controls on workers from these countries. The Home Office forecast that just 13,000 would move to Britain. The current population of A8 nationals in the UK is over one million. (November 2013)
Helen Boaden, Director, Radio and until recently Director, BBC News, accepts that when she came into her role in September 2004 there had been a problem in the BBC’s coverage of immigration. She was aware, she told us, of a “deep liberal bias” in the way that the BBC approached the topic, and specifically that press releases coming from Migration Watch were not always taken as seriously as they might have been.
Helen Boaden’s Evidence to BBC’s Prebble Review (July 2013)
People didn't believe the authorities knew what they were doing and there's a very good reason for that - they didn't.
Phil Woolas, Immigration Minister, reported in The Sun (21 October, 2008)
I have made this point many times before but can we please stop saying that Migration Watch forecasts are wrong. I have pointed out before that Migration Watch assumptions are often below the Government Actuarys Department high migration variant.
An internal Home Office email they were obliged to release to MigrationWatch (29 July, 2003)