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Press Releases for November 2003
November 30, 2003
Migrationwatch Analysis of Asylum Figures
November 17, 2003
Fundamental change 'only answer' to asylum and immigration crisis…
November 17, 2003
Responses to comments from the Independent and the Home Office
November 13, 2003
Non British immigration more than doubled in the
last six years…
November 7, 2003
Media response to today's asylum figures - Reduction of asylum applications masks a failure to remove
Full Text of Releases : November 2003
Migrationwatch Analysis of Asylum Figures
| 1. | Asylum claims in 2003 are up 18% Q3 in comparison with Q2 at 14,765 compared with 12,510. |
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| 2. | The percentage applying at port is down to 28% compared with 32% in Q2 and 32% in 2002 and 35% in 2001 as a whole. It appears therefore that withdrawal of benefits has not been an encouragement to apply at port. |
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| 3. | We are still the top asylum destination in the industrialised world for both 2003 year to date (YTD) and Q3 alone. Our YTD figure is 47,915 compared with 43,630 for the USA and 39,099 for Germany the next highest countries in the world and Europe respectively. Our total for Q3 is 14,765 compared to 12,737 for France the second highest country in Q3. |
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| 4. | Overall the 13 EU countries which the UNHCR reported figures for in Q1-3 2003 showed a drop of 14% in comparison with Q1-3 2002. For the UK the corresponding fall was 39%. |
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| 5. | The UK's greater fall can probably mainly be accounted for by: | ||||||||
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| 6. | In the first three quarters of 2003 the UK saw a reduction of 7,100 (67%) in principal asylum claimants from Iraq and of 4,130 (68%) from Afghanistan. The UK was the favoured location for claimants from these countries. In contrast the UK has seen little or no change in the number of claimants arriving from Russia but, worldwide, Russian claimants have increased by 66% and Russia is now the number one source country. Looking at Q3 statistics alone and comparing them with Q3 2002 - principal claimants dropped by 10,605 - a fall of 47%. Out of this 10,605 - 3,610 is the fall in Iraqi applications, 1,085 is the fall in Afghan applications, 860 is the fall in applications from the Czech Republic and Poland and a further 340 is from the Former USSR (mainly the Baltic States). So, these elements, together with Zimbabwe, make up 69% of the reduction. |
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| 7. | Acceptances of asylum seekers are down to 5% (I.e. only 1 in 20 is considered a genuine refugee) at the initial decision stage. A further 6% are granted discretionary leave. |
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| 8. | The number of appeals determined (21,500 in Q3) remains very high and is an indication of the stress the system is still under at this stage. 20% of appeals are allowed which indicates that either the initial decisions or appeals are not being assessed correctly, or an element of both. |
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| 9. | Removals were up by 9% on Q2. The number being removed, 4,655 in Q3 and 12,925 in the first three quarters of the year, is small and rising only very slowly when compared with the number of appeals rejected. This rose from 21,000 in 2000 to 60,000 in 2002 and to 50,000 in the first 9 months of 2003. |
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| 10. | Data for Q2 2003 shows that removals to EU accession countries have been maintained at Q1 2003 and Q4 2002 levels of about 620 per quarter compared with 400 per quarter for the previous three quarters. These people will, of course, be allowed freely to enter the UK from next May. |
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Fundamental change 'only answer' to asylum and immigration crisis…
Public confidence has been damaged by the Home Secretary's recent statement that he sees 'no obvious upper limit to the number of legal immigrants allowed to enter Britain'. Until now it has been the consensus that a firm and fair immigration policy is a fundamental requirement of good community relations. If we are ever to regain control of our borders and have an immigration policy that commands public support, radical and urgent reform is essential.
That is the view of MigrationwatchUK which, in a wide-ranging paper published today called 'Asylum and Immigration: A programme of action,' sets out detailed proposals that would, over time, restore control to the system, and with it, the confidence and support of the British people.
'When you have a system costing £5 million a day, which abjectly fails genuine refugees while riding roughshod over the clearly expressed wishes of the host population, something has gone terribly wrong,' said Sir Andrew Green, Chairman of MigrationwatchUK in launching the paper. 'At present the main beneficiaries are those who exploit the system. Meanwhile the whole nature of our cities is changing without the British people being consulted.'
He said the Government's response so far has been to come up with piecemeal measures aimed at achieving 'tough' headlines but which do not go to the root of the problem.
'That is why we are calling for Britain to pull out of the outdated international conventions and for the Government to state how many people they want in this country,' said Sir Andrew.
'The Prime Minister said at his last monthly press conference that asylum and immigration issues today are radically different from 20 or 30 years ago and that politics simply hasn't caught up with it. He specifically mentioned the 1951 Convention as being 'completely out of date'.
'We entirely agree but why is he not doing something about it?' said Sir Andrew. 'Only when the fundamental issues are tackled will real progress be made.'
Sir Andrew said that: 'Policy has been allowed to drift with the result that the Government have effectively lost control of our borders. The government are now trying to make the case for "managed migration" but this is simply a slogan until control over our borders has been restored. A whole range of measures, implemented over a period of years, will be necessary to restore it - including withdrawal from the 1951 Geneva Convention on Refugees and amending Human Rights Legislation so that national laws which are right for Britain can be introduced.'
'Our paper is designed to take forward the policy debate. With the number of non British immigrants entering Britain having more than doubled since 1997 to a rate of nearly 250,000 a year, real debate and effective action are now urgent.'
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Responses to comments from the Independent and the Home Office
Following comments (1) in the Independent newspaper and (2) from the Home Office regarding the accuracy of statistics published by Migrationwatch the organisation has responded as follows.
1. Response to the Independent: November 17, 2003
The Independent sought to contrast three statements by Migrationwatch and the Home Office.
The following is an analysis:
1. The MW statement quoted referred to asylum seekers over a six year period. The Home Office statement referred only to a comparison between 2002 and 2001
VERDICT: Both statements correct
2. The MW statement was about net non-EU immigration. The Home Office statement was about asylum applications.
statements are correct.
3. The MW statement says that 63% of 356,200 applicants were refused in the period 1989-99. The Home Office says the total was 226,400. This IS 63% of 356,200. MW estimates that only 25% of those refused left the country. The Home Office do not give their own figure for this.
VERDICT: Both statements correct (indeed identical)
2. Response to Home Office
The Home office criticisms are in black and the MW response is in Red. As the responses indicate, very little of the Home Office critique can be sustained.
MigrationWatch: Immigration at least 200,000 per year or 2 million every
10 years. It has trebled since 1997
Home Office: Immigration not 3 times higher. Net migration is estimated at 153,000 in 2002 not 200,000 [Office of National Statistics]. Long-term net migration actually estimated at 130,000 a year, only 0.2% of the population [Government Actuary's Department].
Net migration in 1997 was 46.8k according to the ONS (International Migration estimates 2002 13.11.03) and increased to 153.4k net in
2002 or 3.28x its 1997 level. These figures do not include any allowance for illegal migration which we have conservatively estimated at 50,000
per annum.
MigrationWatch: 103,000 people applied for asylum in 2002 about the size of the British Army
Home Office: Since then Government policies resulted drastically reduced applications from 8,770 in October last year to 3,610 in June
this year.
Our figures for 2002 are correct. The 8,770 figure was, however, the highest figure on record and was inflated by people claiming asylum before the rules regarding benefits for in-country applicants were revised. 3,610 annualised is 43,320 and this excludes dependants, is still 33% higher than in 1997 (32,500 excluding dependants)
MigrationWatch: On average over the last 6 years, only 20% of applicants
have been granted asylum, including those granted on appeal. A further 20% have been granted permission to stay. Of the remaining 60%, only 13% have been removed.
Home Office: Dispute the method of calculation which is simplistic and
does not reflect those in the process still to receive outcomes. Record
numbers of failed asylum seekers are being removed - provisional Home Office figures indicate at a rate of 1,500 a month.
It is difficult to accurately calculate removal rates. Our figures are calculated over quite a long period 1997-2002 so the effect of outstanding decisions should not be large. The number of failed asylum seekers removed has risen slightly over the last few quarters but as a percentage of those whose asylum claims have failed the removal rate remains very low.The recent increase in the removal rate should be set against a background of 1) an ever increasing pool of asylum seekers whose claims had failed but who were still in the UK and 2) record levels of appeals being completed allowing many more claims to be finalised and 3) evidence that figures for Q4 2002 and Q1 2003 had been inflated by concentrating on EU accession countries - removals to these countries increased by about 50% in these quarters compared to Q3 2002. We await further data on Q2 2003 with interest.
MigrationWatch: Government has set a target of 200,000 work
permits in 2003.
Home Office: The Government does not set targets for work permits. Work permits are demand led by employers for specific vacancies they must demonstrate they cannot fill with a domestic worker. We currently expect to issue 175,000 permits this year.
The government set a figure for budgetary purposes which was 200,000. Some vacancies do not need to pass the resident workers test.
MigrationWatch: After four years, a work permit holder can apply for settlement and, in the past, 95% have been granted.
Home Office: No evidence of this. MigrationWatch appear to be erroneously using the 95% success rate for applications for work permits
Yes there is data on this in the control of immigration stats (eg table 5.2 in 2000 stats. - show applications for extensions and settlement - percentage refused in 1997 - 2000 was 5.2%, 4.5%,5.3% and 3.1% respectively. (This does include extensions as well as settlement but the 5% figure is going to be there or thereabouts).
MigrationWatch: 75% of migrants come to London and the South East.
Home Office: This is not a figure that we recognise.
This is from the ONS Total International Migration 1992-2001 - area of destination or origin in the UK net figures which show that of the net migration in the period 1996-2001 67% were to London and 10% to the South East. See following table for actual nos.
London South East London/South-East England %
| 1996 + 54.6 - 9.5 | + 45.1 60.9 74.06% |
| 1997 + 45.5 - 0.5 | + 45.0 60 75.00% |
| 1998 + 86.7 + 26.3 | + 113.0 144.6 78.15% |
| 1999 + 113.3 + 28.6 | + 141.9 153.9 92.20% |
| 2000 + 120.4 - 0.1 | + 120.3 169.3 71.06% |
| 2001 + 104.4 + 15.1 | + 119.5 172.5 69.28% |
| 1996-2001 + 524.9 + 59.9 | + 584.8 + 761.2 76.83% |
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Non British immigration more than doubled in the last six years…
Since 1997 the number of non British immigrants who have come
to Britain has more than doubled to reach nearly a quarter of a million
in 2002.
The latest figures from the Office of National Statistics for the year 2002, out today, reveal that net non British immigration has now reached 245,000, roughly equivalent to the city of Hull or Nottingham.
'This illustrates the sheer scale of immigration that this Government has presided over in recent years,' said Sir Andrew Green, chairman of MigrationwatchUK, the independent think-tank. 'We would have no difficulty with a moderate and managed level of inward migration but the reality is that the system has fallen into chaos and these numbers reflect that fact. They are by far the highest ever recorded in our history - and the trend is sharply upward. Nor do they include the large number of illegal immigrants who are believed to be taking advantage of our crumbling border controls.
'Furthermore, the net figures disguise the scale of the population changes which are taking place. The figures for 1998 - 2002 show that the net total of 790,000 is made up of 1,034,000 non British coming in and 246,000 British leaving the country,' he said.
'As a result the Government have three central questions to answer. How many immigrants do they want, why, and when will this process come to an end?' said Sir Andrew. 'It is incredible that the Home Secretary should say that he sees no obvious upper limit to legal immigration when it is already a quarter of a million a year without counting illegals. And this is even before his work permit scheme takes its full effect and before we open our labour market to 72 million East Europeans next May.
'They have certainly not convinced the British people of the need, nor explained why this is happening without popular involvement or consent. As a result many people are deeply concerned by the government's loss of control over our borders. Successive opinion polls have shown that 80% of the British people (including 52% of the ethnic minority communities) want much tighter immigration controls and that many fear the loss of our own culture.
'Yet the government continue to fly in the face of public opinion. They seem to have blundered into massive levels of immigration, putting at risk the relatively harmonious community relations of the previous two decades.'
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Media response to today's asylum figures - Reduction of asylum applications masks a failure to remove
Commenting on today's asylum figures think tank Migrationwatch welcomed the reduction in claims which will reduce the pressure on the asylum system and the cost (currently about £2bn a year) to the tax payer - even though Britain is still the largest recipient of asylum seekers in the industrialised world.
But, it says, this may not be the whole picture. Some of those who enter illegally may no longer be claiming asylum as they know that late applicants will be refused benefits.
However, this success masks the continued failure of the Government to remove those who fail to qualify either for asylum or Humanitarian Protection and no longer have any right to be in Britain. The number of people finally refused has trebled in the last three years from 21,000 in 2000 to 66,000 in 2002. Yet the number of removals has increased by only 1,700 to 13,300 in that period so nearly 9 out of 10 asylum seekers manage to stay in Britain, the majority of them illegally.
Commenting, Sir Andrew Green, Chairman of Migrationwatch UK said:
'Removal of those with no right to be here remains the key issue.
Furthermore, the government is sending out conflicting signals. While struggling to close the back door to 50,000 asylum seekers, some of whom may be genuine the Government has opened the front door to record levels of economic migration - this year they will issue 175,000 work permits. Last year alone non - British immigration reached ¼ million. We need a proper debate about where all this is leading.'
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